NEW YORK — Fears that Russia is preparing for a broader war with NATO aren’t rattling Estonia’s foreign minister, who told Fox News Digital that his country’s intelligence sees no signs Moscow is preparing for a full-scale invasion of the alliance.
“We have more and more this kind of panic in Europe that Russia will invade and will be full-scale aggressive against NATO and Europe and the Baltic states, Poland,” Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said in an interview on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York City before quipping, “But we don’t see it.”
Estonia shares a roughly 180-mile border with Russia and has long been among NATO’s most vocal members warning about the threat from Moscow under President Vladimir Putin. But Tsahkna drew a distinction between preparations for a conventional attack and the growing campaign of drone incursions, sabotage, cyberattacks and other provocations that European governments have blamed on Russia.
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“Our intelligence, we see very, very deep into Russia, we don’t see any change,” Tsahkna said. “We don’t see that Russia is preparing a full-scale invasion or aggression. The other side of our borders is pretty empty.”
Tsahkna, who served as Estonia’s defense minister from 2016 to 2017, contrasted the current picture with what he saw a decade ago, when he said roughly 120,000 Russian troops were positioned across the region’s borders and could be ready to move within 48 hours.
“It’s empty,” he said of the Russian side of Estonia’s border today.
His assessment comes as European officials grapple with a series of Russian airspace violations and suspected hybrid attacks, including a Russian military helicopter that crossed into Polish airspace Wednesday. Poland’s military said the incursion appeared to be another attempt to test the readiness of its air defenses.
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European and NATO officials have also warned that Russia could rebuild sufficient military capability to pose a direct threat to the alliance in the coming years. Estonia’s own intelligence service said earlier this year that it saw no Russian intention to attack a NATO member in the immediate term, while warning that Moscow’s military reforms are increasing its longer-term capabilities.
Tsahkna argued that the more immediate threat is a Russian campaign of provocations and hybrid attacks designed to remain below NATO’s Article 5 threshold.
“What Russia is doing now is waging these attacks, which are not crossing Article 5,” he said. “It’s sabotage attacks, terror attacks.”
“The main purpose for Putin is to play with the Western part of the fear of escalation,” Tsahkna went on. “He’s trying to divide the Western parts of the world. Divide the unity, divide this kind of consensus.”
Estonia has dealt with GPS interference, cyberattacks and disinformation it has attributed to Russia, while drones have also crossed into its airspace as the war in neighboring Ukraine continues.
Tsahkna said Estonia recorded roughly 40,000 cyberattacks last year, a particular challenge for a country where virtually all public services are available online.
“We are witnessing already, yes, any kind of different level attacks,” he said. “Unfortunately, it’s already like normality.”
Tsahkna said NATO needs to become more flexible in responding to attacks that fall below the alliance’s collective-defense threshold.
“NATO must be more flex and more dynamic, because these are the attacks which are not crossing Article 5,” he said, pointing to sanctions, public attribution and political responses as tools available to the alliance.
“Putin wants to boil Europe and Western part of the world as a frog,” Tsahkna said. “Turning on the heat piece by piece is a test of us.”
Tsahkna also pointed to an incident last year in which three Russian fighter jets violated Estonian airspace for roughly 12 minutes, prompting Tallinn to request consultations under NATO’s Article 4 and raise the incident at the U.N. Security Council.
He recalled President Donald Trump later saying Russian aircraft that violate NATO airspace should be shot down, and said Estonia has not experienced another comparable fighter-jet incursion since.
“We have now drones coming in,” Tsahkna said. “NATO is working as a Swiss clock.”
Tsahkna said NATO may need cheaper and more efficient ways to bring down drones rather than relying on expensive fighter aircraft.
On Ukraine, Tsahkna called for increasing pressure on Moscow, arguing that Russia’s economic and battlefield losses could eventually push Putin toward serious negotiations.
“What we see, and I also visited Ukraine last week, is that we need to put more pressure on Russia, because Putin understands only very clear language through strength,” he said.
Tsahkna also pointed to Ukraine’s growing ability to strike targets deep inside Russia as a source of pressure on the Kremlin.
“If Putin is under heavier pressure, and also Ukraine is delivering more deep-strike capabilities and attacks, there will be a momentum when Putin may really start some kind of ceasefire or energy ceasefire, or real talks,” he said.
Tsahkna said Trump had devoted significant effort to seeking an end to the war, but argued that Putin has used the diplomatic process to buy time.
“President Trump has put lots of energy during the last year to find a way, but Putin has just played with him and also winning the time,” Tsahkna said.
He said Ukraine’s deep strikes are already weakening Russia economically, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly signaled his willingness to agree to a ceasefire.
“Putin can just decide like today or tomorrow to have a ceasefire,” Tsahkna said. “Unfortunately, we don’t see any change for now.”
Tsahkna also said Estonia has been assured that U.S. forces will remain in the region for the next rotation, amid the Trump administration’s broader review of the American military footprint in Europe.
“We got the information that it will happen soon,” he said of the next rotation.
Tsahkna said the presence of American forces remains an important part of deterrence on NATO’s eastern flank.
“U.S. troops are keeping the peace in our region,” Tsahkna said. “The flag of the troops is so important to give the message to President Putin” about the red lines between Russia and NATO.