The quantum computing price prediction that treats these four stocks as one instrument does not survive the tape: from the 31 December 2025 close to the 29 September 2026 close, IonQ fell 2.1% and D-Wave Quantum fell 37.2%, a 35-point gap, and from 28 August IonQ rose 12.0% while D-Wave fell 3.3%. The single-name notes never put price-to-sales and price-to-cash on the same page, which is the comparison a basket book actually needs. IonQ at $43.91 is 71 times trailing sales of $246 million, while Quantum Computing Inc. at $8.46 is about 1.5 times the cash it last reported. Rigetti at $15.74 is 9.7 times the $541 million of cash last reported and about 393 times $13 million of sales. D-Wave at $16.43 is 11.2 times $546 million of cash and about 492 times $12 million of sales.
That split is the position. IonQ is priced for revenue: about $15.5 billion of its market cap sits above the company’s own pro forma cash figure. Quantum Computing Inc. is priced for cash: take the approximately $1.3 billion reported at 30 June off a $1.91 billion market cap and about $600 million is left for the operating business. Rigetti is priced for a physics-and-funding milestone, not for $13 million of trailing sales. D-Wave is priced for a system contract that has not become revenue, on a sales base that is shrinking. A desk that buys “quantum” as one tape is long four different underlyings.
Key facts
- Closes on 29 September 2026, 4:00 p.m. EDT: IonQ $43.91, Rigetti $15.74, D-Wave $16.43, Quantum Computing Inc. $8.46. From 31 December 2025: down 2.1%, 28.9%, 37.2% and 17.5%. From 28 August: up 12.0%, up 1.0%, down 3.3%, up 3.8%. StockAnalysis quotes, cross-checked to Nasdaq closes, fetched 30 September 2026.
- Market cap on trailing revenue: IonQ $17.45 billion on $246.47 million (70.8 times sales); Rigetti $5.25 billion on $13.35 million (393 times); D-Wave $6.12 billion on $12.43 million (492 times, revenue down 44.2%); Quantum Computing Inc. $1.91 billion on $9.82 million (195 times). StockAnalysis, 30 September 2026.
- Last reported liquidity: IonQ $3.0 billion of cash and investments at 30 June, $2.0 billion pro forma after SkyWater, per the 5 August earnings exhibit. Rigetti $541.3 million. D-Wave $546.2 million. Quantum Computing Inc. approximately $1.3 billion.
- IonQ’s 2026 revenue outlook is $450 million to $460 million, including SkyWater from 31 July after eliminating estimated intercompany sales. IonQ exhibit, 8 September 2026.
- Rigetti’s Commerce award is up to $100 million: $43.9 million up front, then $29.9 million and $26.2 million if milestones are met, against 7,739,938 shares. Rigetti 8-K, 8 September 2026.
- D-Wave’s Commerce agreement is up to $100 million of CHIPS Act funding. Commerce gets a minority, non-controlling stake. The release states no share count. D-Wave, 8 September 2026.
- Street averages the same day: IonQ $67.14 (low $41.85, high $100), Rigetti $28.53 (low $17.30, high $40), D-Wave $34.65 (low $18.36, high $43), Quantum Computing Inc. $18.67 (low $10, high $32). StockAnalysis forecast pages. Only IonQ’s low sits under the close.
What the four businesses actually sell
IonQ sells trapped-ion systems, plus networking, sensing and security lines added by acquisition, and since 31 July 2026 a U.S. foundry. The 5 August release reported second-quarter GAAP revenue of $80.1 million, up 287%, and cost of revenue excluding depreciation and amortization of $60.1 million, a margin of about 25% before that charge. Cash and investments were $3.0 billion at 30 June and $2.0 billion pro forma for SkyWater. The 8 September guide of $450 million to $460 million includes SkyWater from 31 July after an intercompany elimination, so it is not a pure quantum-systems figure. The multiple lives on that guide and on the margin. The single-name range is in the IonQ stock price prediction.
Rigetti sells on-premises superconducting systems: a 9-qubit Novera processor that plugs into a customer’s existing cryogenics, and machines up to 108 qubits, at gate speeds of 50 to 70 nanoseconds, per the 8 September filing. The June quarter produced $5.138 million of revenue and $2.188 million of gross profit, a 42.6% margin, and a $28.1 million operating loss, in the 10-Q. Cash and investments were $541.3 million. Trailing sales of $13.35 million cannot carry a $5.25 billion market cap. The price is the next technical bar, and the Commerce cash tied to it.
D-Wave’s annealing machines are already in customer work, through cloud access, services and the occasional system sale. Gate-model hardware is the longer bet. Second-quarter revenue was $3.1 million, flat year on year, and GAAP gross margin was 55.4%, down from 63.8%, per the 6 August release. First-half bookings of $35.5 million include a $20 million system sale the company said will be recognized later. Obligations were $40.7 million at 30 June. Cash was $546.2 million. Trailing revenue of $12.43 million is down 44%. The stock is a bet that the booked system becomes revenue.
Quantum Computing Inc. is a photonics and semiconductor shop, not an hourly quantum rental. The 10 August release reported second-quarter revenue of $5.6 million, backlog of about $42.5 million, and interest income of $13 million, more than product sales. The net loss was $11.8 million. Cash and investments were approximately $1.3 billion at 30 June, after about $180 million went out for three acquisitions. The July QUBT cash-floor note used an earlier balance. The pile is smaller. The treasury still out-earns the factory.
Quick take: IonQ is a sales story with a foundry mixed in. Rigetti and D-Wave are milestone stories with similar cash and tiny revenue. QUBT is a cash balance that owns some photonics sales.
Who moved in the last month
September did not hand this basket one customer headline all four could trade. It handed them a guidance reset, two equity-for-funding contracts, and one new bulge-bracket initiation. The prices did not treat those as the same event.
On 8 September IonQ set 2026 revenue at $450 million to $460 million, up from the $280 million to $290 million guide that excluded SkyWater. Most of the step-up is five months of foundry revenue, not a surprise in quantum-system demand.
As we prepare to host our first joint Investor Day today, our updated full-year guidance highlights both the market traction of our quantum platform and the foundational manufacturing scale provided by SkyWater.
Niccolo de Masi, Chairman and CEO at IonQ, IonQ exhibit 99.1, 8 September 2026.
The same week Rigetti and D-Wave each signed a Department of Commerce agreement sized at up to $100 million, each conditioned on equity. The terms are below. FinanceFeeds set the single-name Rigetti range, including the $40 street high, in the Rigetti stock prediction. What changed is that the award moved from a letter of intent to a contract with a $43.9 million first tranche and a stated share issuance.
On 28 September Bank of America initiated IonQ at Buy with a $60 target and called it the largest public pure-play quantum company by revenue, according to a Yahoo Finance write-up of the note. Sixty dollars is below the $67.14 average and above the $43.91 close. The more useful sell-side fact is the floor. IonQ’s published low is $41.85, under the close. Rigetti’s low is $17.30, D-Wave’s is $18.36 and Quantum Computing Inc.’s is $10. On those three, every published target is still above the market.
Customers were not the September tape. D-Wave’s system sale was a first-half bookings item, and Quantum Computing Inc. reported on 10 August. From 28 August to 29 September, IonQ rose 12.0%, Quantum Computing Inc. rose 3.8%, Rigetti rose 1.0% and D-Wave fell 3.3%. The name that raised a revenue number outperformed the two that signed government awards. The next hard dates are estimated earnings on 4 November for IonQ, 5 November for D-Wave, 9 November for Rigetti and 13 November for Quantum Computing Inc.
Quick take: The revenue guide was paid for. The two Commerce awards were not. IonQ is the only name whose street low now sits under the stock.
Sales, cash, and the scenario math
Put the four on one page and the quantum computing price prediction stops being a sector call. Spots, market caps and trailing revenue are the 29 September StockAnalysis figures, closes cross-checked to Nasdaq. Bull and bear columns are FinanceFeeds scenarios, not street targets.
Over that year every name is down, and the order is not the year-to-date order. Rebased to 29 September 2025, Quantum Computing Inc. finishes near 45, Rigetti near 53, D-Wave near 65 and IonQ near 68. QUBT is the twelve-month laggard. D-Wave is the 2026 laggard.
| Company | Spot, 29 Sep 2026 | Market cap | Trailing revenue | Price / sales | Bull scenario | Bear scenario |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IonQ | $43.91 | $17.45 billion | $246.47 million | 70.8x | $67 | $26 |
| Rigetti | $15.74 | $5.25 billion | $13.35 million | 393x | $29 | $9 |
| D-Wave | $16.43 | $6.12 billion | $12.43 million | 492x | $35 | $13 |
| Quantum Computing Inc. | $8.46 | $1.91 billion | $9.82 million | 195x | $19 | $6 |
Spot, market cap and trailing revenue: StockAnalysis, 30 September 2026. Multiples and scenario caps: FinanceFeeds calculations. Bull and bear are scenarios.
Against last reported cash the ranking flips. IonQ at $17.45 billion is 8.7 times the $2.0 billion pro forma pile, so about $15.5 billion sits above cash. Rigetti at $5.25 billion is 9.7 times $541.3 million. D-Wave at $6.12 billion is 11.2 times $546.2 million. Quantum Computing Inc. at $1.91 billion is about 1.5 times approximately $1.3 billion. On sales, IonQ is the cheap name. On cash, QUBT is. Using the wrong denominator is how this basket gets mis-hedged.
Share counts on those pages are 397.30 million, 333.77 million, 372.44 million and 226.35 million. IonQ at $67 is $26.6 billion, up 53%, 108 times trailing sales and 58 times the $455 million guide midpoint. At $26 it is $10.3 billion, down 41%, just under the 30 March close of $26.59. Rigetti at $29 is $9.7 billion, up 84% and about 725 times sales, near the $28.53 average. At $9 it is $3.0 billion, down 43% and about 5.5 times cash, below every published target. On the D-Wave single-name note, $35 is $13.0 billion, up 113% and about 1,049 times trailing sales, while $13 is $4.8 billion, down 21%, near the 30 March close of $12.98. QUBT at $19 is $4.3 billion, up 125% and about 3.3 times June cash. At $6 it is $1.36 billion, down 29%. $1.3 billion across 226.35 million shares is about $5.74.
Quick take: Price-to-sales ranks IonQ, then QUBT, then Rigetti, then D-Wave. Price-to-cash reverses the ends of that list. The bulls sit near street averages. The bears, except D-Wave’s, sit under the street’s lowest target.
When the government becomes a shareholder
Two of these names have agreed to give the Department of Commerce stock for CHIPS Act research money. The other two have not, on any filing reviewed for this note. A grant headline is not that contract.
Rigetti’s 8 September 8-K is the contract a desk can price. The award is up to $100 million. $43.9 million is available on or soon after the 4 September award date. Tranches of $29.9 million and $26.2 million follow only if Commerce, in its sole discretion, decides the milestones are met. The parent agreed to issue 7,739,938 shares. At $15.74 those shares are worth about $122 million, about 2.8 times the cash available now and about 1.2 times the full $100 million if every later dollar arrives. StockAnalysis shows 333.77 million shares, close to the June count, so the new shares may sit outside the quoted cap. Added on top, dilution is about 2.3%.
We are proud to be selected by the U.S. government to accelerate R&D and progress against our roadmap to deliver commercially viable quantum computing capabilities.
Dr. Subodh Kulkarni, Chief Executive Officer at Rigetti Computing, Rigetti 8-K exhibit, 8 September 2026.
D-Wave’s release the same day says the company has access to up to $100 million and that Commerce receives a minority, non-controlling stake “as a condition for receiving the funds.” It publishes no share count, no tranche schedule and no milestone list. Dilution cannot be computed the way it can for Rigetti.
We’re grateful to the U.S. government for this award to D-Wave and for the leadership it is demonstrating in advancing quantum innovation. The Administration has made clear that U.S. quantum leadership will require not only breakthrough research, but also the ability to scale, commercialize and manufacture these technologies.
Dr. Alan Baratz, Chief Executive Officer at D-Wave Quantum, D-Wave, 8 September 2026.
IonQ said regulatory approval for the foundry was in hand before the 31 July close. That is not a Commerce share issuance. Quantum Computing Inc. describes government customers, not an equity-for-funding contract. A desk can price the government slice for Rigetti. It cannot yet price it for D-Wave.
Quick take: Rigetti’s dilution is computable, about $122 million of stock against $43.9 million available now. D-Wave’s is not, because the share count is missing. IonQ and QUBT are outside these two contracts.
What happens next, name by name
IonQ reaches the $67 bull scenario if the combined guide lands inside $450 million to $460 million and the margin does not collapse as foundry revenue arrives. That is the street average, not a return to the 2025 high. The $26 bear scenario is a guide cut, or a margin stuck near the quarter’s roughly 25% before depreciation, with the multiple compressing toward 40 times trailing sales. The 4 November print is the first look at SkyWater inside a reported quarter. The chain is guide, then margin, then multiple.
Rigetti reaches $29, the average target, if the later Commerce tranches look collectible and system sales keep $13 million from being the whole story. The $9 bear scenario is a missed milestone that holds back the $29.9 million or the $26.2 million, and a market that stops paying 10 times cash for the science. At $9 the stock would still be more than 200 times trailing sales. Cash of $541 million makes insolvency the wrong worry. The bear case marks the milestone near zero and leaves a mid-single-digit multiple of cash.
D-Wave reaches $35 if the $20 million system and a real share of the $40.7 million obligation balance show up as revenue, with the Commerce award intact. The $13 bear scenario is that system slipping out of the near-term recognition window while trailing revenue keeps shrinking. Even at $13 the stock is hundreds of times sales. This is a retest of the March low, not a cash floor. D-Wave is not QUBT.
Quantum Computing Inc. reaches $19 if backlog converts and product revenue, not interest income, is what grew. The $6 bear scenario marks the operating business near zero and pays for the cash. Interest income of $13 million in one quarter is the larger business today. A cash floor holds only if the share count stops rising and further deals stop consuming the pile. The July floor was a different balance sheet.
Quick take: Four prints in ten days, starting 4 November. The guide, the system sale, the Commerce milestone and the cash pile are four different catalysts.
Frequently asked questions
What is the quantum computing price prediction?
Using 29 September 2026 closes, this quantum computing price prediction puts IonQ at $43.91, Rigetti at $15.74, D-Wave at $16.43 and Quantum Computing Inc. at $8.46. FinanceFeeds’ bull scenarios are $67, $29, $35 and $19. The bear scenarios are $26, $9, $13 and $6. IonQ is priced on sales. QUBT is priced on cash. Rigetti and D-Wave are priced on milestones that are not in trailing revenue.
Do quantum computing stocks still move together?
Not on the windows that matter for a hedge. From 31 December 2025 to 29 September 2026, IonQ fell 2.1% and D-Wave fell 37.2%. Over the twelve months to the same close, Quantum Computing Inc. was the worst of the four and IonQ the least bad. The ranking flips with the window. A basket hedge that assumes one beta is already the wrong trade.
Which of these stocks is priced for cash rather than sales?
Quantum Computing Inc. A $1.91 billion market cap is about 1.5 times the approximately $1.3 billion of cash and investments at 30 June 2026, or about $5.74 a share on 226.35 million shares. Second-quarter interest income was $13 million, against revenue of $5.6 million. IonQ, Rigetti and D-Wave trade at roughly 9 to 11 times last reported cash. Cash is a cushion there, not the price.
What did the Commerce Department actually agree to fund?
Research progress, not a finished computer. Rigetti’s award is up to $100 million, with $43.9 million available near term and two milestone tranches, in exchange for 7,739,938 shares. D-Wave’s award is up to $100 million for a minority stake whose size the 8 September release does not state. Neither contract is revenue. Both can dilute holders before a dollar of new product sales shows up.
When can the next print re-rank the basket?
Estimated earnings dates are 4 November 2026 for IonQ, 5 November for D-Wave, 9 November for Rigetti and 13 November for Quantum Computing Inc. IonQ’s print is the first look at SkyWater in a reported quarter. D-Wave’s is the test of whether booked system revenue is recognized. Rigetti’s is the test of whether the Commerce milestone language gets any harder.
Are the bull and bear levels Wall Street targets?
No. They are FinanceFeeds scenarios anchored to fetched averages, the March lows and cash. Street averages are $67.14, $28.53, $34.65 and $18.67. IonQ’s published low of $41.85 is under the close. The lows for Rigetti, D-Wave and Quantum Computing Inc. are still above it. The bear scenarios sit below those lows on purpose. The street is not publishing the downside.