Updated 9 September 2026. SpaceX’s third scheduled lock-up tranche releases up to 319.0 million Class A shares today, and a separate 59.1 million affiliate block follows tomorrow. Both dates come straight from the 424B4 prospectus filed with the SEC on 12 June 2026, not from a tracker. SPCX closed at $153.47 on 8 September, up 3.73%, and traded $153.65 in the pre-market at 05:07 ET on 9 September – 13.7% above its $135.00 IPO price. At that price today’s tranche is worth roughly $49bn of newly sellable stock. Sources: SEC 424B4 (accession 0001628280-26-042639); Nasdaq quote and historical data, 9 September 2026.
Today is day 90 after SpaceX’s IPO prospectus, and it is the date the company itself wrote into its lock-up schedule. Up to 319.0 million shares of Class A common stock – 7% of the shares subject to the 180-day lock-up period – become eligible to trade. Tomorrow, day 91, a second and smaller release covers up to 59.1 million shares held by affiliates as defined in Rule 144.
That two-step structure is the detail almost every schedule circulating this week has collapsed into a single number. They are not the same release, they do not cover the same holders, and only one of them lands today. Here is what the prospectus actually says, and what the two August precedents suggest about how the market handles it.
Key facts
- Today, 9 September 2026 (the 90th day after the date of the prospectus): up to 319.0 million Class A shares, “representing 7% of the shares subject to the 180-day lock-up period,” explicitly excluding shares held by Rule 144 affiliates – SEC Form 424B4, 12 June 2026
- Tomorrow, 10 September 2026 (day 91): up to 59.1 million Class A shares, being the locked-up shares held by Rule 144 affiliates released from the standoff agreements before that date – same filing
- Combined, the two days cover up to 378.1 million shares, worth about $58.0bn at the 8 September close – FinanceFeeds calculation
- Last close $153.47 on 8 September, up $5.52 (+3.73%) on 85.84 million shares, in a $145.14-$155.00 range; $153.65 in pre-market at 05:07 ET on 9 September – Nasdaq, 9 September 2026
- That is 13.7% above the $135.00 IPO price and 32.0% below the $225.64 post-IPO high – FinanceFeeds calculation from Nasdaq data
- The 7% tranches imply roughly 4.56 billion shares sit inside the 180-day lock-up in total – FinanceFeeds calculation from the prospectus percentages
- Three more scheduled tranches follow: 24 September, 9 October and 24 October, each up to 328.4 million shares (7% each) – 424B4
- The 180-day lock-up fully expires 8 December 2026; a much larger release, up to 1.3 billion shares (28%), is tied to the second trading day after SpaceX publishes Q3 results – 424B4
- Street consensus is Buy across 35 analysts: average target $222.32, low $117, high $450 – stockanalysis.com, updated 8 September 2026
What the prospectus says, word for word
SpaceX’s lock-up is not a single cliff. The 424B4 sets a 180-day lock-up period running to 8 December 2026 and then carves automatic early releases out of it, described in the filing as commencing in the third quarter of 2026. The relevant clause lists the tranche dates together: “up to an additional 7% of the shares may be Transferred on or after each of August 20, 2026, September 9, 2026, September 24, 2026, October 9, 2026, October 24, 2026 (the dates that are 70 days, 90 days, 105 days, 120 days, and 135 days, respectively, after the date of this prospectus).”
The share-count table in the same filing puts a number against each of those dates. For today it reads: “Up to 319.0 million shares of Class A common stock, representing 7% of the shares subject to the 180-day lock-up period. Excludes shares held by ‘affiliates’ as such term is defined in Rule 144 under the Securities Act.”
Tomorrow’s line is a different animal. It covers “Up to 59.1 million shares of Class A common stock, representing the shares subject to the 180-day lock-up period held by ‘affiliates’ as such term is defined in Rule 144 under the Securities Act and released from restrictions under the lock-up and market standoff agreements prior to such date.” In other words, the affiliate shares whose lock-up restrictions have already lapsed become tradable one day later than everyone else’s, and they remain subject to Rule 144’s volume and manner-of-sale limits on top. It is a smaller number attached to a slower-moving group of sellers.
The rest of the calendar
| Date | Day after prospectus | Shares released (up to) | Share of locked block |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 August 2026 | 70 | 319.0 million | 7% (cleared) |
| 9 September 2026 | 90 | 319.0 million | 7% (today) |
| 10 September 2026 | 91 | 59.1 million | Rule 144 affiliate shares |
| 24 September 2026 | 105 | 328.4 million | 7% |
| 9 October 2026 | 120 | 328.4 million | 7% |
| 24 October 2026 | 135 | 328.4 million | 7% |
| Q3 results + 2 trading days | – | 1.3 billion | 28% |
| 8 December 2026 | 180 | 328.4m or 797.6m | Remainder; see note |
All figures are the prospectus maximums. The 8 December line is conditional in the filing itself: up to 328.4 million shares “if the Additional Release Shares were released on the First Earnings Release Date,” or up to 797.6 million “if the Additional Release Shares were not released” then. Those Additional Release Shares – a further 10%, or 455.8 million shares – only came free if SPCX closed at least 30% above the $135.00 IPO price, meaning $175.50 or better, on five of the ten consecutive trading days ending on the first-earnings release date. SPCX has not closed at or above that trigger in any session in our verified Nasdaq window running from mid-August to 8 September; the highest close in it is $153.47, some 12.6% short of the $175.50 level. Which branch of the 8 December line applies is therefore the single largest open number on this calendar.
What happened the last time this ran
The 20 August tranche is the closest available comparison: same 7%, same 319.0 million maximum, same exclusion of affiliates. On the day, SPCX closed at $134.00, down 4.05% from $139.65 the session before, on 119.8 million shares – the heaviest volume in the surrounding fortnight. It did not keep falling. The next session closed $136.97, and by 27 August the stock was back to $140.87. Every figure here is a Nasdaq close.
The pattern across the August releases has been a single heavy down session followed by absorption, which is why the stock is up 13.7% on its IPO price after the tradable float has already expanded several times over. We wrote up the August tranche and the 20% jump in tradable float as it happened, and the preview of today’s release when the date was confirmed a week ago.
Two cautions against reading that as a rule. The sample is two events, not twenty. And an unlock grants the ability to sell, not the obligation – the prospectus caps what may be transferred and says nothing about what will be. The 319.0 million figure is a ceiling, and in both August cases actual selling was plainly a fraction of it.
What it means for the price
SPCX arrives at today’s release in better shape than it met either August tranche. It closed at $153.47 on 8 September after a 3.73% session, against $139.65 the day before the August unlock. Part of that strength is recent: the stock climbed through early September, helped by an Oppenheimer target increase in the first week of the month.
The mechanical case for pressure is unchanged and simple: roughly $49bn of stock becomes sellable today into a market that has to find natural buyers for it, and another three tranches of similar size follow within seven weeks. The mechanical case against it is that this has now been tested twice at this exact size and the float absorbed it both times.
| 12-month analyst targets | Level | vs $153.47 close | What it assumes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low | $117 | -23.8% | Lowest published target of 35 analysts – a soft December revenue run-rate print |
| Average | $222.32 | +44.9% | Street consensus; December annualised revenue arrives near management’s $100bn guide |
| High | $450 | +193.2% | Highest published target – AI compute scales beyond the guide |
Targets are analyst estimates compiled by stockanalysis.com as of 8 September 2026; percentage changes are FinanceFeeds calculations against the 8 September Nasdaq close. The spread between the low and the high is nearly four times on a $2.08trn company, which is a fair summary of how unsettled this equity still is. Our fuller view of the two ends of that range sits in our SPCX scenario analysis.
Quick take: today’s release is a known, scheduled, prospectus-disclosed 7% tranche – the second of the five 7% tranches, and the third release overall – and tomorrow’s 59.1 million affiliate block is a separate and much smaller event that Rule 144 will meter out regardless. The dates and sizes are not in question; they were filed in June. What is genuinely undecided is the 8 December line, where the difference between the two branches is roughly 469 million shares, and the 28% release tied to Q3 results, which is four times the size of a scheduled 7% tranche and roughly 43% larger than the 911.5 million-share release the market cleared in early August.
Frequently asked questions
How many SpaceX shares unlock on 9 September 2026?
Up to 319.0 million Class A shares, representing 7% of the shares subject to the 180-day lock-up period, per SpaceX’s 424B4 prospectus filed 12 June 2026. The figure excludes shares held by affiliates as defined in Rule 144. At the 8 September close of $153.47 that is roughly $49bn of stock.
What unlocks on 10 September, and why is it separate?
Up to 59.1 million Class A shares held by Rule 144 affiliates. The prospectus treats affiliate shares as their own line released on day 91 rather than day 90, and those holders remain subject to Rule 144’s volume and manner-of-sale limits. It is a distinct, smaller release, not part of today’s 319.0 million.
What is the SPCX share price today?
SPCX closed at $153.47 on 8 September 2026, up $5.52 or 3.73%, and traded at $153.65 in the pre-market at 05:07 ET on 9 September. That is 13.7% above the $135.00 IPO price and 32.0% below the $225.64 post-IPO high. The stock has traded between $104.83 and $225.64 since listing.
When does SpaceX’s lock-up fully expire?
8 December 2026, the 180th day after the prospectus. Before then, scheduled 7% tranches of up to 328.4 million shares each land on 24 September, 9 October and 24 October, and a much larger release of up to 1.3 billion shares (28%) is triggered by the second full trading day after SpaceX publishes results for the quarter ending 30 September 2026.
Did the August unlocks push SPCX down?
Briefly. On the 20 August tranche – the same 319.0 million size as today’s – SPCX closed at $134.00, down 4.05%, on 119.8 million shares, its heaviest volume of that fortnight. It closed at $136.97 the next session and $140.87 by 27 August. Two events are not a pattern, but the float absorbed both.
Does an unlock force insiders to sell?
No. A lock-up release removes a contractual restriction; it creates no obligation to sell. The 319.0 million figure is the prospectus maximum that may be transferred, and in both August tranches actual selling was clearly a fraction of the ceiling. Affiliates released tomorrow face Rule 144 volume caps in addition.
Are Elon Musk’s shares part of this release?
No. The prospectus states Musk will hold 849.5 million Class A shares and 5,569.1 million Class B shares after the offering, giving him about 82.4% of the voting power, and his holdings are not part of the tranches releasing this week.
This article is editorial analysis and is not investment advice. Lock-up dates and share counts are quoted from SpaceX’s Form 424B4 prospectus filed with the SEC on 12 June 2026 (accession 0001628280-26-042639); price and volume data are from Nasdaq as of 9 September 2026; analyst targets are compiled by stockanalysis.com. Figures described as FinanceFeeds calculations are our arithmetic from those sources.